Friday, May 11, 2018

Summary of April 2018

Summary of April 2018

April was very interesting. It started off pretty bad but lately things have just gone a like a rocket on the stock market. The German banks keep pulling down my stock portfolio as they have done since 2012. It has been said many times and I can only agree... never underestimate the time it takes for a turn-around to actually turn around.

My work is going very well. I am and have been for some time overloaded so I have decided to take a week in my summerhouse to clear my mind and to be able to focus on finding a new job. At the moment I, just to stay afloat, I have not had the time to search and apply for new jobs as well as I would have liked to.

Both my cars are now giving me plenty of sorrow. I went to the garage to pick it up hopefully fixed and with an MOT finished only to realise that they had forgotten to make the MOT. I took it anyway but after driving 50 meters I had to bring it back due to the breaks being completely messed up... sigh... The other car, my Renault, have recently started to just shut down the engine at stop lights etc. and once that happens then I am almost unable to get it started again. Last night it did not start and I had to call AA that arrived after 3 hours of waiting only to say that they could not fix it for me. Grrr... Only once have a proper AA repair mechanic arrived to help me out and it was excellent service every other time it has been "outsourced" to a company that clearly are not as competent. I therefore do not hold AA in high regards here in the UK.

For the previous summary please visit Summary of February 2018 and here you can see my stock portfolio as it is.

Invested vs Current April 2018

The total invested value is now up at: 114,776 €. During the month of April I picked up some more of ETF Russia simply because the Russian economy is so dependent on it and the price for oil keeps going up.

Current investments April 2018

The value of the portfolio is today: 124,094 € and spread out I now have around 4,025 € in cash on the different accounts. I have a realised gain of 2,857 € and the unrealised gain is now at: 9,319 € (8%) which is not good at all but the saga continues.

DAX increased a lot during April and is now up at 12,820 point which means it increased by 6.8% while my own portfolio only increased by 5.7% in the same period.

Conclusion: DAX did better once again. The German banks keep dragging me down and on top of that my massive investment in ETF Portugal is not moving as I would have liked. I need to make a new investment in the coming two weeks but I still do not know what to buy.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Dividends from Nike and ETF Oil: April 2018

Logo of Nike 2018

From my 40 shares in Nike I received a total of 6.49 € in dividends. On this I paid 0.97 € in taxes and I was left with 5.52 € in cash on my broker account.

To find out more about Nike then please click here.

Logo of BlackRock 2018

For my 185 parts in the BlackRock oil ETF I received a total of 30.65 €. On this I paid no taxes and everything is available as cash on my broker account.

To find out more about my ETF Oil please click here.

To see my total dividend flow then please visit the Stock Dividends page that has now been updated.

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Reflection on companies

The annual reports started with the British sugar, food and retail company Associated British Foods and ended with

the Russian car producer Avtovaz. This marks the end of the annual reports as well as the analysis of the individual companies that I currently hold in my portfolio.

What we can see is that the German banks are still not doing well six years down the line from the initial investment. We have seen that the German electricity companies are having a great year and on top of that are shaking up the entire market. We have seen that some retail companies have been highly successful and others have not. With the chemical companies we have to draw the same conclusion as for retail. The oil companies are doing well but not the oil service companies because they are still struggling as are the mining companies connected to agriculture. The american companies were hit by massive taxes but were besides from that doing very well which is a promising signal for 2018 especially since they will now pay less taxes.

I now hold 25% of my investment portfolio in ETFs and 35% if I include the company pension scheme that I am involved in. I am not yet up at 50% which I would have liked to be but I am moving towards it with giant leaps at the moment since I am saving over 60% of my salary each month. June will however become a month will a lower savings %-age since I big block of annual bills will arrive then.

I once again took a look at my biggest failed investment which was Asian Bamboo to remind myself concerning the size of that failure that I had so early in my portfolio build up period and how long that has had an impact. If only I had started with ETFs instead of making the inverse journey. I saw the signs in Asian Bamboo and yet I did not have the confidence to react on it. Is confidence the correct word? Did I remain due to curiosity? Due to my initial, very stupid, buy rule that I then had? In the final stages I remained due to that I considered that it was hardly even worth it to sell the shares before I finally did push the sell button. In general those initial investments have all performed extremely poorly for me and have lead to a long term drag on the portfolio that I still today have problems to catch up with. 

With each failure I have tried to tweak my investment approach. Is that wrong? Should the focus instead be to look upon the good investments and make up rules based on what I then saw before I made the investment? MüRe, Adidas, Enel and Deere were all great buys but should I have sold them? MüRe and Adidas I definitely should not have sold while I am still not certain when it comes to Enel and Deere. Kernel was a perfect sale but should I have bought it in the first place? One thing is for certain... it is not easy.

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Analysis of Avtovaz 2018

Avtovaz, a Russian car producer

Company: Avtovaz 

ISIN US05453R1014 | WKN 576848

Business: A Russian automotive company. They are the biggest personal car producer in Russia with their own brand, Lada, as well as having production for, for instance, Renault and Nissan which are their largest shareholders. Today they have almost 20% of the Russian market and they hope to increase that as well as increasing export.

Active: In 46 countries with the biggest market being Russia.

P/E: -6.9

Here you can find the previous analysis of Avtovaz 2016... missed last year.

Contrarian analysis of Avtovaz 2018 with P/E, P/B, ROE as well as dividend.

The P/E is bad with -6.9 due to losses and the P/B is equally bad with -1 which gives a clear no go from Graham. Earnings to sales, ROE and book to debt ratio due to losses as well as having negative equity.
In the last five years they have however shown an excellent yearly revenue growth rate of 5% which gives us a motivated P/E of 13 to 18. I am unable to make a statement since they are making losses.
They spend money on R&D which is good but what is crucial for Avtovaz moving forward is of course increased sales and cost control.
They, correctly so, pay out no dividends.

Conclusion: Graham says no and so do I. Is there a future for Avtovaz? I tend to think so but without any earnings it is very difficult to give them a reasonable valuation today. I will remain as a grumpy shareholder due to the loss of Bo Inge Anderson.

Monday, May 7, 2018

Avtovaz annual report 2017

Front page of Avtovaz annual report 2017

For the report in full please go here and to read my previous summary please click on Avtovaz annual report 2016 and to find out more regarding Avtovaz then please visit Analysis of Avtovaz 2016. It appears as if I got so annoyed with the changes in Avtovaz that I did not make an analysis of the company during 2017.

In the income statement below we see that there was a significant increase in the revenue for Avtovaz in 2017. The costs unfortunately also increased and we ended up with yet another year of losses but much less than in 2016. Reading the sales for Q1 of 2018 then Avtovaz is doing very well. We are of course still dealing with a significant negative equity in Avtovaz which is also very clearly stated by the accounting company.

Income statement of Avtovaz 2017

Conclusion: Avtovaz is doing better and by the look of things their new models (developed by Bo Inge Andersson) appears to have been highly successful that now the new french CEO can harvest. I will remain as a shareholder.