Sunday, June 11, 2017

Analysis of VW 2017


Logo of VW 2017


Company: Volkswagen 

ISIN DE0007664039 | WKN 766403 

Business: A German automobile manufacturer. The are still producing motorcycles, cars, trucks, large-bore diesel engines, turbochargers, turbo machinery, compressors and chemical reactors. They are however most famous for their cars and here are the Volkswagen brands. The next time you go for a spinn with your Ducati remember it is a Volkswagen you are sitting on and never forget that the many will always beat the few in the end... one way or the other. 

Active: World wide with sales in 153 countries. 

P/E: 13.4

Here you can find the previous analysis of VW 2016


Contrarian analysis of VW 2017


The P/E for Volkswagen is pretty good with 13.4 and the P/B is excellent with 0.8 which gives a very clear buy signal from Graham. The earnings to sales are not very impressive with 2% and neither is the ROE with 5.6%. The book to debt ratio is also on the low side with 0.3.
In the last five years they have shown a yearly revenue growth rate of 2.4% which is ok but also not much more which then gives us a motivated P/E of 10 to 14 which means that VW is today fairly valued by the market.
They pay out a silly dividend in the size of 1.5% which correspond to only 20% of their earnings so hopefully they will be able to keep this level unless there are any more unpleasant surprises around the corner.

Conclusion: Graham says yes and so do I. The P/E and P/B is great and they should be able to increase their earnings which will bring up the other values. The only reservation that I have is how many more costs will arrive due to the Diesel gate. USA tends to be very fast and EU is acting more slowly but they tend to get there in the end. I will remain as a shareholder but I will not buy more.

Saturday, June 10, 2017

VW annual report 2016


Front page of the VW annual report 2016


To read the report in full please go here and to read the previous summary then please click on VW annual report 2015 and to find out more regarding VW then please visit analysis of VW 2016. 

In the financial statement below we can see that things are going a little bit better again for VW. The revenue kept growing and the earnings are, well, not as they have been in the past but we can see a direct increase with the 5+ billion € that they could bring home. The costs for special items was halved compared to in 2015.




Conclusion: VW have seen better days but also worse. Hopefully by cleaning up their act we will not see these kind of blunders for as long as I will remain as a shareholder in VW. I still worry about what a structure built on fear can cause for a company and if I own any more such companies today?

Friday, June 9, 2017

Uniper analysis 2017


Logo of Uniper 2017


Company: Uniper

ISIN DE000UNSE018 | WKN UNSE01

Business: A German energy company. They are standing on three pillars: European Generation (from all kind of sources), Global Commodities (energy trading) and finally International Power Generation (Russia and Brazil).

Active: Europe, Russia and Brazil

P/E: -3.2

Contrarian analysis of Uniper 2017


The P/E of Uniper is awful with -3.2 due to losses but the P/B is looking ok with 0.9 which in the end still gives a no from Graham. The earnings to sales and ROE are meaningless due to the losses but the book to debt ratio is down at 0.3 which is low but not unusual.
In the last four years they have had a negative yearly revenue growth in the size of -8.2% which gives us a motivated P/E of 8 and Uniper is overvalued by the market today.
Insanely enough they pay a dividend in the size of 3.3% which in my book should never be done when you are showing losses. 

Conclusion: Uniper is showing a difficult year followed by a difficult year followed by a... If one goes back in their "history" then they have made  losses for the last four years. Not a good sign. Graham says no to this and so do I. I want to see some actual results and not only an increasing share price to make me happy and to make me even consider buying more shares. I will remain as a shareholder though.

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Uniper annual report 2016


Front page of Uniper 2016 annual report


To read the report in full then please go here. The only previous report to look back at would be the summary of Q2 2016 and I have still not managed to make an analysis of the company.

From the financial statement below we can see that Uniper is not having a good time. The revenue dropped by almost -30% going from 92 bn € to 68 bn € and the earnings, well earnings is the wrong word, or I mean the losses have remained well over -3 billion € for this year as well as the previous. Any lights in the end of that tunnel? The share price keeps going up so the investors must tend to think so.


Financial statement Uniper 2016


Conclusion: Uniper is having a hard time and they will really need increased energy prices to improve their situation. I received shares in this company as a gift and I will keep my gift for now so I will remain as a shareholder in Uniper.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Analysis of TJX 2017


Logo of TJX 2017

Company: TJX 

ISIN US8725401090 | WKN 854854 

Business: An American off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. They use several store names based on take overs and store concept and in the U.S. they have T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Sierra Trading Post and in Canada they have Winners, HomeSense, Marshalls and in Europe they got T.K. Maxx and HomeSense. 

Active: in the US, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, Poland, Ireland and Austria.

P/E: 21.6

Here you can find the previous analysis of TJX 2016


Contrarian analysis of TJX 2017

The P/E of TJX is far too high for my liking with 21.6 and the P/B is horrible with over 10 which gives a very clear no from Graham. Earnings to sales seems reasonable with 7% and the ROE is spectacular with over 50%. The book to debt ratio is so, so with 0.5.
In the last five years they have shown a yearly revenue growth rate of 5.1% which is excellent and this then gives us a motivated P/E of 16 to 19 which means that TJX is today slightly overvalued by the market.
They pay a silly dividend in the size of 1.4% which on the good side only correspond to 30% of their earnings so there is room for improvement.

Conclusion: Graham says very clearly no to TJX and I also find it to be too expensive. The P/E is high and so is the P/B with a silly dividend. The only very good one is the ROE value. All this said I will neither sell my shares nor will I buy more so I will remain as a shareholder.